For two decades bonds have offered a form of free insurance for investors, tending to move in the opposite direction to stocks over short periods while making good money over the longer run.
But investors counting on the ballast of bonds should take note: There is reason to believe this win-win might be ending. And thus when the next recession hits, bonds may be less useful than they were in the last.
jmackin2 Gold and ICSH
jmackin2 James, why u don't go deeper into alternative assets such as Active Long Vol or CTAs? Why don't you give an interview to Chris vol_christopher? He's got a different approach ie DragonPortfolio See his latest paper
jmackin2 I would then expect gold and silver to continue to climb. Current gov bond yields are pitiful
jmackin2 Gdp growth of 2.3% with a budget deficit of 4.5% of Gdp seems like a recession to me already.
jmackin2 Dear friends , we are already in recession , what r happening is a plenty of cash at 0% interest from FED and BCE directly to the market ! If you studied recession 1920 , all start from the markets , than move to real life ! After negative tax rate , tried to pumping up Stocks
jmackin2 Its all propped up by 'non QE', buybacks and celebrating consumer debt. National debt is rising along with stocks but were already in a business recession, people get fired whilst companies use that money for more buybacks and take on more debt..... this will all end well.
jmackin2 Investors usually hedge with gold in recessions. Gold moves opposite the market.
jmackin2 Can't read that article as it's subscription (not signing up sorry). But bonds do not lose their convexity due to low yields. In fact it can exaggerate that event. .25% moves causes a greater effect. If that's where you were going with this.
jmackin2 So only alternative is hard assets, gold etc?
jmackin2 Funny how we self prophecize our economic status... BOA financial advisor 'we're gonna have another recession' I know there's dips, but after 68 years, I'm starting to see a pattern... 🤔 It's almost scripted.