Investors torn between debt, forex market as naira weakens

With warnings of imminent recession, the parallel market has continued to witness demand pressure from individuals seeking to hedge their investments and organisations struggling to settle their foreign exchange obligations, having been shut out from the official window.

The nation’s first quarter revenue from crude sales was N940.9 billion , missing its target by 31 per cent due to the oil price crash, Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed revealed. Analysts attributed the driver of the reserve accretion to the inflow of Rapid Financing Instrument facility from the International Monetary Fund which continues to outweigh forex outflows.

At the NTB segment, the average yield contracted by 11bps to 2.2per cent due to piqued investors’ interest following improved rates in the space Some analysts expect better appetite in the treasury bills market next week, supported by improved system liquidity and better offers on treasury bills papers.

“In the NTB segment, we expect the focus to be shifted to next week’s PMA. While there is no indication of the amount to be offered, we expect a similar result from the last NTB PMA. Meanwhile, despite the coronavirus- induced economic downturn, the nation’s GDP grew by 1.87 per cent in real terms in Q1 of 2020. But stakeholders have warned of imminent contraction in growth in Q2 due to the lockdown measures put in place during the quarter.

She re-affirmed this statement last week, after the National Economic Council meeting, saying that the NBS data showed that the economy would go into a recession at an average of -4.4 per cent. According to the NBS report, Nigeria’s oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06 per cent in Q1 2020, indicating an increase of 6.51 per cent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 .

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