we made the case for a systemic approach to restructuring the minibus taxi industry. At the height of South Africa’s hard lockdown, we also looked at three post-lockdown travel demand recovery scenarios and predicted that the recovery of passenger demand would not be a speedy affair and that public transport operators may not see demand recover to 2019 levels for a long time to come.
The upsurge in taxi violence is another indicator of constrained demand. In the Western Cape alone more than 50 people were murdered in the first six months of 2020 and we see increasing incidents of attacks on buses. The signs of an accelerating crisis are evident. Although this crisis comes with great potential for conflict and poor policy-making driven by short-term pressures, it also creates a burning platform and ideal opportunity to put in place a sound long-term strategic approach – not only for the recovery of the taxi industry that existed before lockdown – but for the rebuilding of the South African public transport system with the taxi industry at its rightful place at the centre of the strategy.