Column: China's iron ore market appears in supply-demand sweet spot - Russell

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Iron ore appears to have settled into something akin to a comfortable equilibrium, with Chinese stimulus spending keeping demand high, but supply from Australia and Brazil sufficient to maintain a balanced market.

FILE PHOTO: Cranes unload imported iron ore from a cargo vessel at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2019. REUTERS/Stringer

The official numbers also include a small volume of iron ore that arrives overland from neighbouring countries. China’s steel industry is likely to produce more than a billion tonnes in 2020, the first time that level will have been breached, as stimulus spending keeps demand high from the infrastructure and construction sectors.

However, supply seems to be recovering, with Refinitiv data showing Brazil shipped about 31.5 million tonnes in October. This is down from the peak so far in 2020 of $130.55 a tonne on Sept. 3, but still some 50% higher than the low of $79.60 from March 23, struck at the height of China’s lockdowns. It’s possible to argue that demand is still robust in China, but equally so it’s hard to see it rising much further from current levels.

 

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Beware China steel products if they are using lower grade ore steel quality will be lower. It’s a given

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