Demand for gas on the east coast could crash by 60 per cent by 2050 if the rapid growth in renewables eats into the profitability of gas power generation, according to a report by global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.where full decarbonisation in line with net zero “remains challenging to achieve”.Michelle Mossop
“The energy transition is almost certain to reduce Australia’s domestic gas demand over the long term; the key question is how quickly,” said Lucy Cullen, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Asia Pacific gas team. In the slow burn scenario, there is higher gas demand due to a slower transition to low-carbon energy amid greater challenges to decarbonisation.“Under this scenario, progress is made, but gas demand remains better supported as infrastructure and power grid constraints, as well as legislative hold-ups, slow the pace of transition. Eastern Australia gas demand is projected to fall 20 per cent from 626 PJ in 2020 to 478 PJ by 2050.
Eastern Australia demand is set to structurally decline over the long term, as the energy transition gathers pace.