High-velocity market swings have roots in economic boom thesis

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At times in the last few weeks, trying to glean a coherent message from disparate swings across asset classes has been an exercise in futility.

Where once surging bond yields and commodity prices spelled big trouble for equities, now stocks are surging alongside them.

The solid backdrop is hard to dismiss, at least for now. Growth in the US economy accelerated last quarter, while earnings for SGoing by analyst forecasts, corporate profits will increase at about 10 per cent a year until at least 2024. Meanwhile, gross domestic product is expected to rise more than 2 per cent in each of the next six quarters.

To be sure, different explanations exist for each individual move. Oil obviously got a big boost after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. But the commodity’s rally began months ago in the face of booming demand.To Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, inconsistent asset correlations are the story of markets right now.

 

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