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A volatile stock market faces a critical test next week, when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates and give more insight on its plans for tightening monetary policy to fight surging inflation.

Worries over an increasingly hawkish Fed have helped drag the benchmark S&P 500 index down 13.3% so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.

Investors widely expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points when the central bank’s meeting concludes on Wednesday. Crucial to the tightening plans will be how persistent officials view the current pace of inflation after March’s consumer price index showed an annual increase of 8.5%, the largest rise in over 40 years.

The month of April marked the S&P 500’s biggest monthly fall since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq logged its largest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. The percentage of individual investors describing their six-month outlook for stocks as “bearish” rose to 59.4%, its highest level since 2009, according to the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.Following the Fed’s expected rate hike in March, the S&P 500 rallied more than 8% over the ensuing two weeks.

 

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