Two big earnings trends as we end the first half of the year and look forward to the second half: 1) Aggregate estimates for the S & P 500 are slightly higher than the start of the year, indicating the analyst community as a whole is not modelling a recession into earnings estimates, at least not yet. 2) Much of the profit rise this year is due to the oceans of money going into the coffers of oil companies.
Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services are lagging At the same time, two larger sectors tied to the consumer are seeing their estimates go lower, led by consumer discretionary. Consumer Discretionary: 2022 earnings January 1: up 28.5% Today: up 3.2% However, a good part of the decline is due to two companies, Amazon and Starbucks. Other retailers are expected to see their earnings increase, as are most home builders like Lennar and Pulte.
inflation...buybacks...