“The risks of a 2022 recession are significantly higher than I would have judged six or nine weeks ago,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. “If the economy did go into recession in the next six to nine months, then you’d probably see a reduction in inflationary pressures.”
There’s perhaps a 50-50 chance — “maybe it’s a bit less than that” — that GDP shrank in both the first and second quarters of this year, Summers said. That would meet the textbook definition of a recession. If the US does enter a recession, that would likely prompt policy makers to moderate their tightening, Summers said.
ɪ'ᴍ ɴᴏ ᴇxᴘᴇʀᴛ ɪɴ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ʙᴜᴛ ɪ ʜᴀᴅ ɢᴏᴏᴅ ɢᴜɪᴅᴀɴᴄᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ mamats38 ᴀɴᴅ ʜer ᴛᴇᴀᴍ, ɪᴛ'ꜱ ʙᴇʏᴏɴᴅ ᴇʏᴇ ᴏᴘᴇɴɪɴɢ, ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛʜᴇꜱᴇ ᴛᴇᴀᴄʜɪɴɢꜱ ᴀɴᴅ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜱᴋɪʟʟ, I'ᴠᴇ ʜᴀᴅ ɴᴏᴛʜɪɴɢ ʙᴜᴛ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜱᴜᴄᴄᴇꜱꜱ.