Simon’s weekly wrap: Investing in a bear market

‘Bear markets’ refer to when a market falls over 20% from highs; we’re living in one right now. It’s no fun. I spoke with Andrew Dittberner of Old Mutual Private Client Securities about insights from 95 years of market data, to get a sense of where we are in this bear market. It’s likely that we’re more than halfway through, so while there’s more pain to come, we may close to an eventual end.

We’re starting to see trading updates from mining companies for the first half of 2022 and so far, they are bleak. I spoke with Mia Kruger from Kruger International, and she points out that compared with the corresponding first-half of 2021, we should expect weaker earnings. The miners are still very profitable, but commodity prices are well off the early 2021 highs.

Over the last decade South Africans were rushing money offshore to catch the tech trade, which has now collapsed. Clive Eggers of GTC points out that this was a Fomo trade and it certainly made money. But we should not forget local equities, and have a balance between local and offshore. I spoke with Jeanine de Swardt-Breeds of Masthead about the potential South Africa’s potential grey-listing. The Financial Action Task Force was in the country in September and gave us a year to remedy issues around money laundering and financial support for terrorism. If we don’t get things on track by October, we could be on its grey-list – with serious implications for the country.

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