Business Maverick: Is the US economy in recession? Here are eight offbeat indicators to watch

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After two quarters of contracting gross domestic product in the US, a debate has raged across Wall Street and Washington about when the country will be in a recession — and whether America is already in one.

Technically, the call is made by a panel of experts looking at monthly indicators of employment, consumer spending, personal income and manufacturing, among others. But with inflation at a four-decade high, many Americans already feel like the country is in a recession.Here are a few.Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan was a fan of tracking men’s spending habits on underwear based on the thesis that they will put off buyingas times get tough.

“If you were to use it as a barometer, the most important retail sales to watch are Fruit of the Loom and Hanes at Walmart and Target, where most of America buys its underwear.” Hanesbrands might provide a clue when it reports second-quarter earnings on August 11. Walmart, which reports on 16 August, recently cut its profit forecast, in part because of deeper discounts needed to reduce a buildup of slow-selling merchandise such as apparel.Bubbly, which is often used to celebrate good times, has been seen as a harbinger of things to come since the mid-1980s, when shipments soared during Wall Street’s boom. Consumption hit 15.

, NielsenIQ data shows US sales of sparkling wine down every month from the previous year, falling in a range of 7% to 8% in May and June.In the early 2000s, Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder coined the term “Lipstick Index” when he remarked that women were indulging in little luxuries like lipstick to make themselves feel better during the downturn.

 

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It's not a debate, they ARE IN a recession. The only ones denying that are the Dems

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