Business Maverick: China’s Electric Trucks May Well Pull Forward Peak Oil Demand

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Electric trucks are grabbing a lot of headlines lately. Elon Musk announced Tesla Semis will start shipping to PepsiCo in California. Volvo is delivering battery-powered big rigs to Amazon in Germany.

But few markets are electrifying quite like China, where EVs have gone from less than 1% of light commercial vehicle sales to 10% in just the last two years. Sales reached a record high of almost 18,000 in August and look likely to keep rising in the final few months of the year.globally. At 10% electric share, China is well ahead of almost all other countries in this segment.

The market for electric medium and heavy-duty trucks in China is also picking up. Sales of electric big rigs in that segment rose 224% in July and hit 3.4% of the total market. Deliveries dipped slightly in August, falling to 2% share, but the trend for the year is still strongly up and to the right.

The first is that hydrogen fuel cells are the main, or even the only, way to clean up heavy trucks. The data so far shows that while fuel cells are playing a role, most of the alternative heavy trucks being sold in China are battery-electric.

 

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