Has inflation broken the relationship between stocks and bonds?

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Dismissing the value of bonds in a balanced and diversified portfolio based on an event that has historically occurred 13 per cent of the time doesn’t make sense.

While volatility in the financial markets is nothing new, the stormy weather of 2022 has been enough to unmoor even the most seasoned of investors.

Equity/bond correlations should be returning to normal soon and the 60:40 portfolio and all its variations are far from dead.Is it then time to dismiss bonds as effective equity market shock absorbers, and declare the 60:40 portfolio dead?Advertisement Importantly, these periods of positive correlation are generally short-lived, and the diversification benefits that bonds bring to a portfolio persist over the longer term. Vanguard research suggests that for investors with a longer time horizon of 10-plus years, the transient correlations of equities and bonds have very little impact on expectations for and uncertainty in long-term multi-asset portfolio outcomes.decision that drives the vast majority of portfolio returns over the long term.

And disciplined long-distance runners and investors know that those moments of extreme pain eventually subside and sticking to your race plan is usually the key to making it to the finish line.

 

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Correlation is not causation

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