Anyone watching the market knows stocks have been hammered since the Federal Reserve began in March what has turned into an aggressive series of interest rate hikes, but strategists at Deutsche Bank say they might be surprised to learn that those rate hikes probably aren’t the culprit.
Any misconception that rate-hike cycles have tended to be negative for stocks was probably reinforced by the market’s ugly 2022 performance, but a closer look at the tape shows why that conclusion doesn’t hold up, Chadha and his team wrote: Treasury-yield volatility, as measured by the ICE BofA MOVE Index, hasn’t tended to rise in a sustained manner during rate-hike cycles, they wrote, with the one exception being the 1973 hiking cycle, which was the only one that also saw a significant stock-market selloff.
So the key question for investors is whether yield volatility will fall. Chadha and his team think it probably will, for two reasons: a slower and more “deliberate” speed of Fed hikes ahead; and the fact that rates have already seen a significant rise, pushing them closer to where they will peak, even if they will get there only gradually.
There were VERY few ppl these last couple yrs warning of an upcoming major recession. Ppl to drunk off insane tech valuations & market manipulation. Obvi was not going to last. so I don’t see how ppl are meant to trust y’all now that ur finally reporting on it. It’s crazy.
I think this deserves a mention