which has about $25 billion under management in exchange-traded funds, says it’s likely to be a tough year for investors generally and much will depend on what happens in the United States economy.
“United States consumer demand is the engine of global growth and our equity market’s fortunes remain tied to global growth. There is, however, the chance of a soft landing in the US, which could be positive for cyclicals and commodity-related exposures.” “However, the risk from here is a deteriorating economic environment pulls those forward earnings down, resulting in a fall in stock prices.”
He says the oil price was sold off in late January and early February, and a milder than expected European winter provides upside potential. China’s demand for oil may hit a record of about 16 million barrels a day as mobility and air travel recovers, he says.