On top of this historic undersupply came a massive increase in demand as employment and the population rose strongly in recent years. And with the economy continuing to grow through Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis, demand has remained strong. Now forecasts that interest rates are going to rise further – and quickly – are likely to slow demand, though with supply so tight there may still be buyers for what is available.
The figures show stock is particularly tight at lower price categories, with just 3,850 houses worth under €200,000 on the market, a fall of 49 per cent in three years. This points to a major shortage of second-hand properties in large parts of rural Ireland, where prices are generally lower.
In city markets, supply is more in line with pre-Covid levels – and is up 7 per cent in Dublin – but is still low by historical standards, leading to a scramble for properties on the market and over recent years many homes selling for above the prices at which they went on the market, as buyers often have no viable alternatives.In the short term, it looks like more of the same.
Mortgage broker Michael Dowling confirms that demand from first-time buyers remains strong – particularly boosted by the Central Bank rule changes which released some pent-up demand – but says higher interest rates are now having some impact on second-time buyer demand, where affordability concerns are now becoming an issue. In turn this may be starting to have some impact on the prices at which houses are being put on the market. Non first-time buyers can normally only borrow 3.