Most of North’s exports head south, landlords continue to sell up in rental market, and pension top ups
The debt agency has been helped, of course, by the fact that the Government’s general surplus was forecast in April to hit €10 billion this year, turbocharged by tax receipts from multinationals, and well ahead of the €6 billion originally projected late last year. The NTMA hasn’t had to raise as little debt since the State was cocooned from global bond markets a decade ago when it was in the middle of an international bailout. It sold an average of about €16.5 billion of bonds a year between 2014 and 2021, including large issuances during the Covid-19 pandemic.
At the same time, an average of less than €13 billion of Government debt falls due a year over the same period, according to NTMA figures, leaving it with lower refinancing needs compared to most other European countries. Moreover, the weighted average rate on State borrowings is 1.5 per cent. But, of course, without the windfall taxes, the Government balance sheet would have been in deficit last year and in 2023. The Economic and Social Research Institute’s downgrade last week of Irish gross domestic product for this year to 0.1 per cent from 5.5 per cent, previously, following a marked slowdown in pharma exports, shows how quickly things can turn for big parts of the multinational sector.