Monday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 4,453.53 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% to 34,624,30. The Nasdaq composite added less than 0.1% to 13,710.24.
Traders are betting on a roughly 40% chance the Fed will raise rates again in either November or December, according to data from CME Group. Worries about a possible recession persist though they have diminished as reports have shown the economy and job market remain resilient. One worrying factor is where bond yields are, with two-year and other shorter-term yields continuing to remain higher than longer-term yields. That’s an unusual occurrence that has often preceded recessions in the past.
It’s been 15 months since the most recent such warning. In the past, the longest stretch between such a trigger and a recession was the 16 months before the Great Recession. If this matches that one, it could imply a recession beginning in October, Ramsey says.