A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Mike Dolan World markets have hunkered down ahead of the week's big central bank decisions, uncomfortable about inflation signals being sent byA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Mike Dolan
The crude spur is more supply than demand related and most fingers point to the latest output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But U.S. production is falling too and the U.S. Energy Information Administration said output from top U.S. shale-producing regions is on track to fall for the third month in a row in October to its lowest since May.
In the meantime, futures markets are busily lifting Fed rate bets through 2024, with the implied policy rates for mid-year and yearend hitting highs for the cycle and rates through September now all near 5% or above as the 'higher for longer' Fed mantra sinks in. An auction of 20-year bonds will be watched closely later on Tuesday, as will August housing starts numbers following another drop in homebuilder sentiment in the latest NAHB survey.