Marketmind: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm

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With one eye on a key U.S. inflation update for August later on Friday, world markets limped to the end of a poor third quarter and clawed back some of their worst losses. A partial U.S. government shutdown, now on the cards from Sunday as last ditch attempts in Congress to avert it look set to fail, hardly paints a bright backdrop to the final three months of 2023. But the worst of the selling in bonds and stocks this week, which may have been partly related to the quarter end and a heavy U.S. Treasury auction schedule, seemed to ease somewhat.

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New YorkWith one eye on a key U.S. inflation update for August later on Friday, world markets limped to the end of a poor third quarter and clawed back some of their worst losses.

It's hard to identify any particular reason for the mini-bounce, but the circular nature of the week's oil, bond, dollar and stock market moves seemed to reverse at bit. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18.

There was further good news on the European inflation front. Inflation in the euro zone fell more than forecast to its lowest level in two years in September, suggesting the European Central Bank's diet of interest rate hikes is working and may now end. Citing possible economic data outages due the looming government shutdown, Richmond Fed boss Thomas Barkin said it's not yet clear to him what the central bank needs to do on monetary policy into the end of the year.

 

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