Too many unknowns leave China traders with no clue on stocks

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How to put a price on a full-blown trade war emerges as the key challenge for China’s stock investors.

A pedestrian walks along an elevated walkway in the Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China.

The Shanghai Composite Index’s drop of as much as 13% since an April peak has stalled this year’s bull market, leaving it without direction. Volumes are dwindling and indexes are barely moving. The market is seeing its longest stretch of calm since February as traders struggle to figure out their next move.

As trade relations sour, stocks are snookered between the potential for good or bad news. Investors are concerned over a possible sell-off if the yuan tumbles beyond 7 per dollar, and are bracing for this month’s Group of 20 meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump. Signs of a slowing economy continue to kindle stimulus hopes: data Friday showed manufacturing contracted faster than expected in May.

“Our approach has been, and will continue to be, watch and wait,” said Zhai Jingyong of Banyan Investment Management. “No amount of policies from here can help make up for the harm done from trade restrictions. It all depends on trade and a softening of the positions of the two nations. I still believe that’s happening.

 

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