One of the best aspects of the slow but sustained growth of the U.S. economy has been that hourly wages have been growing faster than the overall economy. This is wonderful for consumers. But with slow growth overall, the tight labor market can put a damper on corporate profits and hurt investors’ returns.
Goldman’s economics team expects U.S. real GDP growth to average 2.5% during 2020. But the equity analysts expect that for S&P 500 SPX, -0.32% companies, “continued wage and input cost pressures will limit margin expansion to just 13 [basis points] in 2020 and 5 bp in 2021.” That’s after an estimated net profit margin contraction of 65 basis points for 2019, attributed by Goldman to “180 bp margin compression in the Energy sector and declines in a few large-cap technology stocks.
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