With the economic outlook brightening, COVID-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become “an intriguing alpha generator” due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it, according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.“Lead indicators suggest that an inflation scare may be in the making,” Levkovich wrote.
Crude oil has surged this year, bolstered by confidence in a global economic recovery. Those bets have been reflected in the stock market, with energy producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. soaring. The industry has led gains in the S&P 500 in 2021, climbing five times more than the equity benchmark.Article content
Since the start of February, a basket of stocks with the highest operating leverage that strips out industry bias has beaten the cohort of weakest ones by 1.7 percentage points, data compiled by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg show. The gauge is poised for a fourth straight month of outperformance, the longest streak since the taper tantrum year of 2013.
“Many investors believe the spending boost will lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which would reduce the value of equity duration and increase the importance of near-term growth,” Kostin wrote in a note earlier this month. “Historically, inflation has boosted nominal S&P 500 revenues, but weighed on profit margins as companies struggled to lift prices at the same pace as rising input costs.
AKimCampbell Buy Oil! Propaganda
I will believe it when I see it. The stock market is not connected to reality. It is connected to available investment cash, and that will be plentiful, even with a higher inflation rate. BitCoin at $54,000+? Tesla at $745.00+? I am pretty sure inflation won’t matter here.
or riddit?