The S&P 500 pared its October rally, big tech sold off, while bond yields climbed with the dollar. Swap markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point hike this week amid the Fed’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in four decades. The outlook for the following meetings is less certain, with traders seeing a “coin toss” between an increase of that size and a 50-basis-point boost in the final month of 2022.
“Much has been said about the potential for a pivot toward a slower cadence of tightening,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “The larger uncertainty is whether this ‘pivot lite’ is interpreted as the beginning of the end of the Fed’s hawkish stance or simply an indication that tighter for longer will be the new norm.”suggests that if Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives any dovish signals this week, he might send investors scrambling.
And when it comes to elections, the fourth quarter of midterm years and the following first quarter historically have been the two strongest of the 16-quarter presidential cycle, delivering average gains of 6.4% and 6.9% respectively for the S&P 500, according to investment research firm CFRA.
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