BENGALURU - The global stock market rally has further to run in 2020, according to analysts, brokers and strategists polled by Reuters, but much depends on U.S. and Chinese officials making real progress in stopping a disruptive trade war.
The turnaround in expectations coincides with a new buoyancy in most equity markets. Fears that the global economy might slip into recession, which the government bond market has been suggesting on and off in 2019 is an imminent risk in the United States, appear to have been alleviated in recent weeks.
A lot of recent optimism has stemmed from speculation U.S. and China trade officials are close to agreeing a way forward, despite the fact nothing substantial has been reported, let alone when or where leaders will next formally meet to discuss a resolution. In the meantime, major central banks have cut interest rates and the European Central Bank has resumed its asset-purchase program, flooding capital markets with cash. But most developed and emerging economies are growing below potential and consumer price inflation remains quiescent for the most part.
But that strong performance seems to be coming to an end, according to the latest poll. Even the top performing indices for the year, which have risen 25% or more, including the S&P 500Taken together with the sharp rise in investing in index-tracking funds over the past decade, the latest poll results suggest many investors should brace themselves for limited returns next year.
While stocks in advanced economies have led the rally this year, they are now expected to take a back seat and make way for emerging markets, which are forecast to outperform over the next 12 months.
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