on Thursday, said temperatures probably will be significantly above normal during the peak heating season between December and February.
The Copernicus model brings together data from scientists in the UK, France, Germany, Italy and the US. The European Union program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations for its monthly and seasonal forecasts. Commodity Weather calculates a value of 2,330 this winter, compared with last year’s 2,085 and the 10-year average of 2,233, meteorologist William Henneberg said. Europe’s winter likely will be volatile, marked by shifting periods of cold and mild readings.
A colder winter will reduce Europe’s chances of getting through this heating season “relatively unscathed”, said Katja Yafimava, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.As winter unfolds across the Northern Hemisphere, meteorologists will be closely watching the Arctic. Circling the pole is a girdle of winds called the polar vortex, and if they should weaken, frigid air could come spilling south into the US, Asia or Europe.
Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at commercial forecaster Atmospheric G2, sees no evidence of a breakdown that could foster the type of killer cold that crippled the Texas electrical grid last year.
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