French election poses downside risks for the Euro . The uncertainty surrounding this election is high given the rapidly-shifting polls and two-step voting process where results between rounds can swing massively. OAT-Bund spreads have widened to levels last seen in 2017 and European stocks have collapsed, TDS strategists note.
” “Growth convergence with US might not be able to save the EUR. The political fabric of EU is becoming strained and making it harder to address bigger issues like energy crises, tech and industrial changes, and management of alliances with US/ China. French gridlock or worse a more Euro-skeptic government could weigh on the economic outlook and the EUR.” “We remain bearish EUR vs USD, GBP, CHF.
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