The relationship between high-flying technology stocks and U.S. Treasury yields has broken down, echoing ‘the extreme anomalies of the dot-com boom when tech valuations became unmoored,” according to Morgan Stanley.
“With tech trading at a 60% premium to an already expensive market, interest rate sensitivity is once again negative, suggesting any backup in yields will be a powerful headwind,” Shalett said in the report. “This index concentration in tech stocks increases market fragility.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.289% declined about 30 basis points over the second quarter, slipping further in July to trade around 1.3% on Thursday afternoon. That compares with a yield of more than 1.7% at the end of March. Lower Treasury yields have been benefiting longer-duration, rate-sensitive growth stocks, with investors in recent weeks rotating into them from value and cyclical bets.
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