It might take a market mishap to end a debt-ceiling standoff that threatens to trigger a previously unthinkable default on U.S. government debt.
“An interesting question now is whether financial market vigilantes, in bonds, stocks or even currencies could flex their muscles the closer the government gets to running out of cash,” said Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, in a note late last week. “There’s no chance — none — that the House-passed budget deal could win enactment in the Senate, where leading Republicans are reluctant to get involved,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a Tuesday note. “In the House, a couple dozen hard-liners have no interest in raising the debt ceiling if the Senate modifies their bill.”“That’s easy — a stock market meltdown or signs of a looming recession.
Analysts argue that the market panic helped consolidate support for the controversial legislation, which was subsequently passed and signed into law by President George W. Bush in early October.
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