Lance Roberts is chief editor of the Real Investment Report, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed globally. He also writes a daily blog at Real Investment Advice.
With Treasurys, they have never had three years of a negative return since 1787, though It’s possible that will happen this year. But remember that this is an asset that doesn’t go to zero. The U.S. government will always pay its debts, at least for now. Roberts: All of the bullish sentiment that we had back in June and July has been reversed. People are attributing a lot of very bearish themes to the market including interest rates, valuations and geopolitical concerns. Sentiment has gotten fairly negative and the positioning by professional managers has also gotten negative. To be clear, I’m bullish only for the next couple of months.
Roberts: That’s when the scenario changes. I think there is a potential for recession and for lower asset prices when people recognize there is slower economic growth.Roberts: Exactly. I looked at a couple of different factors that have high correlations to recessionary events. Obviously, one of those is yield curves. I normally track 10 different economically sensitive yield curves. Then I measure how many of those on a percentage basis are inverted.
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