In my three decades in the financial markets, I’ve come to expect the unexpected. With the new year upon us, I’m sharing five predictions for the U.S. housing market that counter conventional wisdom. These ideas may not necessarily come to pass, but I’ll explain how they could materialize. Thinking about these outcomes aren’t just theoretical but can help prepare us if they, in fact, happen.
2. Housing affordability improves: Interest rates are one of the primary drivers of home sales. We’re in a low interest environment and Core Housing Lenders are coming off banner years with record revenues and volumes. As a result, mortgage lenders have increased their underwriting capacity. Therefore, as rates go up, firms may continue to absorb these increases, effectively subsidizing the cost for consumers.
4. Non-qualified mortgage market will evolve more quickly: A non-qualified mortgage is quite simply a mortgage that doesn’t meet the standards of the Qualified Mortgage Rule, which was adopted in 2014. Non-QM mortgages are often designed for self-employed borrowers, real estate investors, and near-prime borrowers. There is much discussion in policy circles about reforming the Government-Sponsored Enterprises of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Ginnie Mae.
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