Strategists at Goldman Sachs led by David Kostin ran the numbers.
The good news is that S&P 500 corrections are typically good buying opportunities. Of the 33 corrections of at least 10% since 1950, the median episode has lasted about five months, and encompassed a peak-to-trough decline of 18% — but an investor buying the S&P 500 10% below its high would’ve gained a median return of 15% during the subsequent 12 months.
There’s three key factors investors should watch to see if a rebound can develop — positioning, monetary policy and earnings. None of these factors at the moment are working in favor of buyers. For example, its equity sentiment indicator typically is 2+ standard deviations below average near the bottoms of correction since the global financial crisis, but right now it’s just 0.
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