This column has been much more constructive on risk since late May when we determined that interest rate markets were finally pricing in the monetary policy tightening required to deal with the near-term inflation threat coupled with our central case that consumer price pressures would start dissipating as supply chains normalised.
The long and variable lags inherent in monetary policy tightening cycles mean that it is inevitable that in the first phase of that process we see large cross-currents in data releases that have something for everyone. While some economists will criticise the compositionally-adjusted office wage results, they crucially conform almost exactly with CBA’s wage index, which tracks actual income payments into 300,000 bank accounts.
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