Tuesday’s release of the latest consumer price index data—the most-watched inflation measure—and Wednesday’s impending Federal Reserve interest rate hike will reveal whether the worst of inflation and the related drop in equities are in the rearview mirror, but could risk leaving investors with nothing more than coal in their stockings.Getty ImagesThe Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and will announce Wednesday if it agreed to any changes to the federal funds rate.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 75 basis points at its last four meetings as it seeks to use the primary tool it has available to rein in inflation, relatedly dragging down the stock market as investors opt for safer assets. It’s “almost a done deal” the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points this week, Bank of America strategists led by Michael Gapen wrote in a Monday note, with Fed chair Jerome PowellAnd how successful the Fed’s anti-inflation campaign has been thus far will be partially revealed Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EST, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on how consumer prices moved in the 12-month period ending November, following the lowest CPI reading of 2022 last month at 7.7%.
The CPI reading and the Fed announcement make this a “make-or-break week for stocks and bonds,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote Monday, with Essaye predicting that a higher CPI reading compared to the prior month “would likely eliminate any hope of a year-end rally” for stocks.Inflation reached its highest level in over 40 years last winter as lingering pandemic-related disruptions sent prices soaring. The Fed accordinglythe federal funds target rate from 0% to 0.25% in March to 3.
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