What horrors can sink stocks anew?
One possibility? A weird credit freeze. No, not from SVB fallout. Overall, banks are in pretty good shape compared to history. Despite fears, loan growth is robust globally, a key force supporting resilient economic activity. U.S. February lending growth was 11.4 per cent y/y, nearly triple the 4.5 per cent of a year ago. Canada’s December 2022 non-mortgage loan growth was 9.0 per cent y/y, nicely above the prior year’s 5.5 per cent. Eurozone business lending slowed some but remains a solid 5.
Deposit rates are tiny now globally. You know interest paid on your savings accounts is near non-existent. Even U.S. savings rates average just 0.35 per cent, even after the Federal Reserve’s raft of hikes. Still, some big global banks hint at higher deposit rates. U.S. financials are increasingly tapping overnight funding markets, indicating deposit bases may be eroding. Regional bank failure jitters may incentivize cash-hoarding. Be watchful.
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