NEW YORK - The enormous demand for weight-loss treatments like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy could support as many as 10 competing products with annual sales reaching up to $100 billion within a decade, mostly in the United States, industry executives and analysts said.
Eli Lilly and Co is expected to receive a U.S. weight loss approval for its similar drug, Mounjaro, later this year. "We're going full guns on this," said Bill Sessa, chief scientific officer at Pfizer's Internal Medicine Research Unit."If we can accelerate, we will." The company has two oral GLP-1 drugs in mid-stage trials, and aims to choose one for a late-stage trial this year. An obesity therapy"is going to be one of the main drugs for Pfizer moving forward," Sessa said.
"We're seeing a sea change in how we treat metabolic conditions," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman. He forecasts GLP-1s or similar drugs topping $100 billion in annual sales early in the 2030s, with Lilly's product accounting for more than $50 billion in sales. "And you never know who will respond better to one versus the other, so having a variety of similar but not identical products will probably be helpful," Kane said. Doctors expect patients will need to stay on these drugs long term to maintain their weight loss. Last year, a Novo Nordisk-funded study found patients regained about two-thirds of their lost weight a year after stopping treatment.
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