According to data from Morgan Stanley, the 10 largest stocks in the index – a list that includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, chip-maker NVIDIA, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Facebook owner Meta Platforms, and Tesla – account for 86 per cent of the 8.2 per cent gain the SJPMorgan markets guru Marko Kolanovic notes that the top two stocks – Apple and Microsoft – have never accounted for as big a share of the index as they do now.
“The extent to which the valuations of these names remain so well bid illustrates the crowding of equity positioning by an investor base that remains highly sceptical of the economic and market outlook.” Evidence includes elevated cash levels held by active fund managers and the heavy discounts of sectors that typically do worse in a hard-landing scenario, such as media, real estate and transport.P 500, the rest of the market is struggling.
“Despite garnering a reputation over recent quarters of being either defensive or higher quality versus their sector peers, Amcor, Super Retail and National Australia Bank have each experienced share price falls that could be considered disproportionately harsh versus their actual result or trading update.”The second risk from overcrowding is that any sell-off in the defensive diamonds could exacerbate broader falls on equity markets.
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