Bullish sentiment among short-term market timers is at near-record levels. Followers of contrarian analysis believe the most likely near-term trend of the market from here is down.
Consider the average recommended stock market exposure level among a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters. At the market’s low last Oct. 12, the HSNSI stood at the 0.08th percentile of all daily readings since 2000. Today it’s at the 99.99th percentile. The chart plots the HSNSI over about three months of U.S. market trading days. The orange line reflects sentiment in the weeks leading up to the top of the internet bubble, while the gray line reflects sentiment over the weeks prior to now.
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