Expectation for U.S. inflation have fallen over the past month thanks largely to the drop in industrial and agricultural commodity prices. This trend has shown up in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which saw expectations for inflation both three years and five years from now both decline in June.
And as U.S. stocks continue to climb off of last month’s lows, investors are understandably nervous about the possibility that Wednesday’s number could delay the latest bear-market rally. According to Essaye, a reading below last month’s level would help reassure the market that inflation pressures are finally starting to wane. This would likely spark a move higher in stocks, allowing the relief rally to continue, since waning inflation pressures might allow the Federal Reserve to potentially pause its interest rate hikes later this year, Essaye said.
Fortunately, since the market has had ample time to price in this scenario, Essaye wouldn’t expect the selling to be too intense unless the data is accompanied by another market-negative headline, like, say, news that Beijing is expanding its latest round of COVID-inspired restrictions in China.
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