Analysis: Goodbye, TINA: higher yields muddy outlook for struggling U.S. stocks

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Soaring interest rates are providing investors with attractive alternatives to stocks, complicating the picture for equities in an already-vicious year

“As interest rates continue to rise, there is a greater number of choices to capture total return or income without taking on stock market volatility,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “That will continue to put some downward pressure on stocks.”

The yields on many Treasuries - which are considered virtually risk-free if held to maturity - now dwarf the S&P 500's dividend yield, which recently stood at about 1.8%, according to Refinitiv Datastream. , which measures an index of one to three month Treasury bills, as of Friday had taken in net inflows of nearly $9 billion so far this year, more than any other State Street ETF.

As bond yields have climbed, stock valuations have weakened. The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 16 times, compared to nearly 22 times at the start of the year, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

 

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