The survey, released every May and November, gives median measurements among surveyed economists on how they're forecasting 27 economic and real estate data points will fare in the coming quarters and years. The most recent survey was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 12.
Despite the prognostication ULI's survey sets out to do, and the predictions made by economists on Wednesday, most agree it's too difficult to say with certainty when and if the U.S. economy is in a recession, and how deep it'll be. Both of those factors will be critical in determining how the real estate industry will fare in 2023 and 2024.
Already, a slowdown in deal volume has been widely acknowledged, with global commercial real estate investments totaling $234 billion in Q3, or an annual decline of 18%, according to Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. research. This year is forecasted to end at $600 billion in total commercial real estate transaction volume, according to ULI's survey. That's down from the $855 billion in deals done in 2021, MSCI Inc. found.