Australia’s $60 billion lithium sector faces a whipsaw 2023 as brokers jostle over the valuation of the sharemarket’s hottest growth stocks, deploying a wide range of commodity price forecasts with mixed results.by forecasting the lithium carbonate price to fall to $US53,300 a tonne in 2023 before cratering to $US11,000 a tonne in 2024 as more supply comes to market.
The schism between broking powerhouses Goldman and Macquarie is partly due to difficulty forecasting supply and demand in a fast-moving market as public and private stakeholders lift investment in battery supply chains to meet decarbonisation targets. “While we see earnings support for the Australian stocks over 12 [to] 18 months on price lags, on a 12-month view we expect lithium stock prices to fall as lithium prices decline from record peaks,” the broker said.
“The team believes the battery maker overcapacity, on the back of accelerated capacity build-out amid a decelerating growth of new energy vehicles sales will eventually weigh on lithium prices and expect this dynamic to start playing out in 2H23,” it said. “Our global team’s EV demand forecast remains compliant with a Paris 1.5 degrees scenario.”Citi is slightly below consensus calls in forecasting $US40,348 a tonne in 2023 and $US25,000 a tonne in 2024.
2024 may be right if the demand remained the same. 2024 is another year closer to the global target of net zero so I guess we'll see if the EV sales trend goes the other way.🤔
So just noticed Tommy R posted this, of course he did, pushing a report that he obviously didn't do any homework for, considering everyone else seems to think the opposite. So tommyr345 are you happy pushing GoldmanSachs manipulation? Of course you are!! Biggest hypocrite.
Goldman Sachs has its own agenda, three sentiment changes in one year! Obviously they are playing games! Look into their deal with CATL, they're trying there hardest to manipulate, should be sued and fined.
Yeah.. if you looked into the lithium story and have a basic understanding of supply/demand then you'd have seen this coming years ago. Stunned as a baby at a magic show.
It is entirely possible that lithium prices may skyrocket in the coming years. FEAM is a significant provider of boron and lithium, supplying these vital minerals globally. As the demand for lithium grows, so will the price of this commodity, it may create short squeeze.
Goldman Sachs has inexperienced staff making calls from behind their desk on the assumption of every current lithium project including explorers comes online and that’s just a fallacy….either clueless or purposely misleading for their own agenda lithium asx
Goldman Sachs experts… “Let’s throw some random low ball figure out for 2024 and 2025 and get some cheaper shares again. How’s $11,000/t sound? Yea that ought to do it.” 🤡
GS is right (always... :)) )and Elon Musk is wrong :)) about Li!!!!