ut the demand for workers has started to roll over. They argue job openings and hiring plans have declined since the start of 2022, and the trend in layoffs is no longer improving.“The buoyancy of nonfarm payroll growth has seemed at odds with other signs that the jobs market is beginning to sour. We look for
“As we look ahead, the case for additional labor market weakness is clear. If additional labor supply is not forthcoming, it will take softer labor demand to bring nominal wage growth back toward a pace that is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. This is one reason the FOMC is still contemplating additional rate hikes even as other sources of inflationary pressure, such as spiking gasoline prices and hampered supply chains, have eased in recent months.
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