Syth said in a note Friday that Southwest's estimate is at the upper end of investor expectations and implies a cost of $43,000 to $50,000 per canceled flight. While that range is higher than what Syth expected, she said it falls below the high-water mark of $65,000 per flight during a system outage at Delta Air Lines in August 2016.
Southwest's disclosure implies the company will report a loss of 20 cents per share for the fourth quarter, Syth said. She projects Southwest's quarterly loss will amount to 30 cents per share, compared to a prior estimate of a profit of 10 cents per share.Southwest also faces a potential revenue headwind in the first quarter, with customers opting to book flights with other airlines.
"We believe sentiment and, in turn, shares will continue to be weighed down by the longer term implications of the operations meltdown, but we continue to be cautiously optimistic that management will be up to the task of addressing operational reliability longer term with minimal incremental net cost/investment," Syth said.
Shares of Southwest were up 1.2% in trading on Friday morning to $33.97. The company will report its financial results for the 4th quarter on Jan. 26.
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