The stock market's top risk is a systemic credit event, survey says

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Investors think a systemic credit event has replaced high inflation as the number one risk to the stock market

"Investor sentiment [is] close to levels of pessimism seen at lows of [the] past 20 years," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said. Participants in the survey said they have dumped their exposure to bank stocks on fears of credit and counterparty risk and increased their allocation to cash in recent days.

The elevated level of bearishness among investors, combined with the Federal Reserve and US Treasury's swift response to the banking crisis suggests to Hartnett that the3,800 level will serve as a"floor" that holds. At the same time, Hartnett recommends investors fade any rally that sends the S&P 500 to the 4,100 to 4,200 range. The S&P 500 jumped 1% to 3,992 in Tuesday's trading session.

Just under 90% of survey respondents expect the US economy to be dealing with stagflation through the first quarter of 2024. The, which would ultimately result in slower economic growth.

 

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