Bond vigilantes’ violent reaction to spendthrift French politicians is an important reminder for the United States: the market will likely determine the tipping point for debt sustainability, and it will be hard to predict it.
One senior financial industry executive who has been alarmed about deficits for the past several months said the signal that debt had hit an inflection point may well come from the market. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The former president has talked about cutting taxes but raising tariffs and reducing waste in the federal bureaucracy.A market flare-up can be problematic and have far-reaching consequences, especially if it is sustained. Investors expect the Fed, for example, to start cutting rates later this year.
“The market’s in a good mood right now,” Tipp said. “Everyone’s convinced that the Fed’s rate is going to be going lower, and they want to lock in these yields for a long time.”