Global stocks are up 12% so far in 2024. Here's what to expect next, according to history

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CNBC Pro analyzed 50 years of MSCI World index price data to see what happened next when the index rose by more than 12% in the first six months of the year.

Global stocks ended the first half of 2024 up by more than 12%, and investors stand to make good money over the next six months if history repeats itself.

Pro's analysis of the past 50 years of MSCI World index price data shows that when the index rose by more than 12% in the first six months of the year, it continued to rise over the second half 83% of the time. Since the late 1980s, though, after a first-half rise of over 12%, stocks rose every single time in the second half of the year. The analysis also reveals that since 1970, the global stock market index had an average 21.

 

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