. Unless she can inspire a sharp increase in economic confidence, she is likely to lose the presidential election in November.
Many of the election models—either formal models like those employed by 538 or the informal mental models many pundits carry around in their heads—tend to. They count things like the unemployment rate, income growth, or broad economic growth as “fundamentals” likely to influence the election when these things only indirectly and variably sway votes through the medium of sentiment.
. Typically, consumer sentiment is near its cyclical peak in election years, giving a big boost to incumbents or incumbent party candidates. The exceptions, when consumer sentiment was at or near a recent low in an election year, stand out: there was the Carter-Reagan election of 1980, the Bush-Clinton election of 1992, McCain-Obama in 2008, Clinton-Trump in 2016, and Trump-Biden in 2020.
. On the question of who would be best for the economy, Trump got 40 percent, Biden 35 percent, and 20 percent said it would not make a difference. On personal finances, Trump led 39 to Biden’s 32 percent, with 23 percent in the no difference category.
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