Business leaders think Trump is all bluster. They’re badly mistaken.

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He has been talking the same way about the economy for decades — and been very wrong the whole time.

Former president Donald Trump holds up a fist after speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville on Saturday.

The conventional wisdom about Donald Trump is that he has no coherent policy agenda. He is transactional, impulsive and narcissistic. The 140 of his former staffersfull-page ad in the New York Times. It was an open letter “To The American People,” and its basic message should by now be familiar. It began, “For decades, Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States.” The thrust of the letter is that the United States is crippling itself by spending on the defense of its allies while those allies prosper. His solution? Make “Japan, Saudi Arabia, and others” pay America to protect them and “tax” these nations, by which he means impose tariffs.

So far, the record has been clear. By Trump’s own key measure — the trade deficit — the tariffs against China (rather than contracted. Many studies have shown that these measures have cost American consumers tens of billions of dollars and have not altered China’s policies. A$500 billion annually, or around $1,700 for a typical middle-income family every year. In other words, they would stoke inflation.

There is a broader point to make here. The United States did something truly revolutionary after World War II. It understood that by underwriting international stability and helping other nations get rich, it would create a zone of peace and prosperity in which it, too, would thrive. That vision of enlightened self-interest has been at the heart of America’s engagement with the world for almost eight decades.

 

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