Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Budget is among the casualties of the coronavirus pandemic. It is now dead and buried, and no-one knows what is going to replace it given the dramatic turn of events.
“This would require an additional 36% increase in issuance … Policy options are limited and South Africa has few options, in reality, to alter the trajectory except to smooth around the edges and ensure a fast bounce back. The risk of liquidity sudden stops is significant into SOEs [state-owned enterprises], especially in this environment. South Africa is entering an exceedingly risky environment and is at the fiscal cliff edge,” he wrote in a note on Wednesday, 18 March 2020.
Virág Fórizs, emerging markets economist with Capital Economics, had the following to say: “We expect an even deeper fall in activity in Q2. The rapid pace of developments makes it difficult to forecast with any degree of certainty. However, assuming that tourist arrivals fall sharply and domestic consumers’ delay non-essential purchases, we estimate that output will probably contract by around 10% q/q before rebounding later. We’ve cut our full-year forecast to a fall of about 3%.
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